المنشور

"The critical showdown for the 8/7 Nonfarm Payrolls is tonight" Tonight at 8:30 PM, the Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released, marking a crucial showdown for the Nonfarm report. What is the likely outcome of this data tonight? Will it be positive or will it suppress btc, eth? I'll be straightforward with my judgment: it will be positive, and it must be positive. Why am I so certain? Let's first review the fundamentals. Currently, U.S. employment is basically supported entirely by the service sector. Remember the small Nonfarm report released on Wednesday? The new jobs added were only 44,000. What level is this? In June, the service sector added 96,000 jobs, so this is basically a 50% cut. Compared to last year, the same period added 74,000 jobs, so the growth has also dropped by 40%. What's more interesting is that out of these 44,000 new jobs, 36,000 came from the education and healthcare sectors. Many other service industries show weak hiring intentions, indicating a direct cooling in service sector activity. So where do you think tonight's big Nonfarm data can shine? Another factor is that last month's employment data included a large number of temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Now that the event ended in July, these short-term jobs will naturally exit, which will somewhat drag down the overall employment data, causing some weakness. This is the reality. Having covered the fundamentals, let's talk about the political logic. In November this year, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, and the date is approaching. From Trump's perspective, he definitely wants to deliver a solid economic report card to secure voter support. If the stock market and residents' income perform weakly, that would be a major negative for the election. Trump has publicly stated that he hopes to see interest rate cuts implemented. In the previous election, Powell's rate cuts helped Trump's opponent, and Trump has held a grudge ever since. #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound