المنشور

Tonight's Nonfarm Payroll Data Analysis CME FedWatch shows a 56.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect 83,000 new nonfarm jobs in July, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. But two days ago, ADP data shocked the market — only 44,000 new private sector jobs were added in July, below the expected 75,000, marking the lowest this year. Employment is slowing down. CME FedWatch shows a 56.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September. ADP 44,000, the lowest this year. June nonfarm payrolls were only 57,000, and April-May combined were revised down by 74,000. Hiring momentum is visibly slowing. As of the week ending August 1, initial jobless claims were 199,000, below 200,000 for the third consecutive week. Companies are not laying off employees. In Q2, nonfarm labor productivity grew 1.4%, and unit labor costs rose 1.3% — wages are still increasing, and cost pressures are still being transmitted. On one hand, fewer people are being hired; on the other, no one is being laid off. June CPI year-over-year was 3.5%, down from 4.2%, but still far from the 2% target. Fed Governor Cook said last Wednesday: "Inflation is too high. Inflation risk outweighs employment risk. If necessary, I am ready to raise rates." Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari — one of the three dissenting votes at the July FOMC — also publicly said: "It's time to start raising rates now." The hawkish voices are getting louder. On July 29, the FOMC maintained rates unchanged with a 9-3 vote. All three dissenting votes advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has had three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction in a single decision. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos bluntly stated: This division highlights the growing pressure within the Fed — demanding action on inflation that has been above target for five consecutive years. The Fed neither cuts nor hikes rates, verbally shouting "zero tolerance for inflation," . #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound