المنشور

Nonfarm payrolls collapsed, gold price surged to 4400, why didn’t your position follow? At 20:30 Beijing time, the data was released. The US July seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. The previous figure of 57,000 was also revised down to 20,000. Within one minute, several directions on the screen moved simultaneously. The US dollar index plunged nearly 30 points in the short term, hitting 99.67. Spot gold rallied about $40 to 4351.43, and New York futures gold directly surpassed 4400, up 2.36% intraday. The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped 4.29 basis points to 4.627%, and USD/JPY fell 80 points. US stock index futures surged, with Nasdaq futures up 0.79%. Looking again at BTC, 65078.77. It surged then pulled back. This is the most worth pondering scene tonight. Traditional safe-haven and rate-cut expectation assets are celebrating, while crypto surged briefly then retreated. First, clarify the data itself, which hides two traps. The first trap: May and June’s new jobs were cumulatively revised down by 103,000, with May cut from 129,000 to 63,000, and June from 57,000 to 20,000. The previously thought stable job market was an illusion created by revisions. The second trap is more twisted. Jobs decreased, but the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, lower than expected. This is not good news. Jobs lost but unemployment rate down usually means some people simply stopped looking and dropped out of the statistics. The denominator shrinks, making the rate look better but the reality worse. The key is how the market prices this. Interest rate futures show the expected rate hike by December dropped from 32 basis points before the data release to 28 basis points. Note, it’s a hike, not a cut. Despite the job collapse, the market still prices in nearly 30 basis points of hikes by year-end. Before the release, the probability of no change in September was 45.1%, and a 25 basis point hike was 54.9%.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound