المنشور

ADP data at 44,000, hitting a new low for the year. According to textbook logic Weak employment → lower rate hike expectations → positive for non-interest assets Goldman Sachs and Barclays say ADP's predictive power for nonfarm payrolls has never been strong and is more easily skewed by small and medium enterprise samples. Low initial claims indicate companies are not conducting large-scale layoffs, just being cautious about hiring. The market calls this "low hiring, low layoffs." Cook said, "If inflation doesn't cool down, I'm ready to act," Schmidt said rates are "not restrictive enough" and may need to rise, while Bessent said "no need to raise rates at this stage." Three people, three different views. CME shows about a 55% chance of a rate hike in September, half betting yes, half no. The impact on assets is very interesting. SanDisk $SNDK fears rate hike expectations the most. Revenue at 8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, gross margin 84.6%, and approved a 14 billion buyback, yet shares fell 7% after hours. Good earnings but stock price dropped because the market fears the future interest rate environment, not past performance. Gold $XAU has the clearest logic. Weak ADP → lower rate hike probability → weaker dollar → gold rises. When it stood above 4300, it was trading rate expectations. $BTC is awkward. With the same macro script, gold surged, BTC is stuck at 64,000. ETF money is flowing in, with a single-day net inflow of $243 million on August 6, but the price remains flat. Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, US institutions are selling, Asia is buying. Fed internal divisions are large, with rate cut expectations and rate hike risks pulling against each other, BTC is caught in the middle grinding. Gold is trading rate expectations, BTC is waiting for its own catalyst. It's not that BTC is ignoring macro, but macro itself is directionally unclear, and funds don't know which way to bet. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls and next Thursday's CPI will decide whether there will be a rate hike in September. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？