المنشور

The jobs report moved September pricing. CPI may decide it. U.S. payrolls fell 23K in July versus expectations for ~85K growth, marking the first negative month since February. May and June were revised down by a combined 103K: · May: 129K to 63K · June: 57K to 20K The slowdown is broader than one month. Payroll growth averaged 34K over the past year, while average hourly earnings were nearly flat in July and wage growth cooled to 3.2% YoY. But the 4.1% unemployment rate does not tell a straightforward story. The labor force shrank by 264K, pushing participation down to 61.4%, its lowest level in more than five years. The headline payroll decline also included a 50K drop in local government education, a category vulnerable to seasonal distortions. Still, weakness extended to retail and financial activities, while health care added only 22K jobs, below its recent average. Following the jobs report on Aug 7, CME FedWatch assigned roughly a 44% probability to a 25 bp September hike, while Kalshi showed around 64% odds of no change as of Aug 8. Those figures come from different markets and methodologies, but both point to the same conclusion: September is still open. Now the focus shifts to July CPI on Aug 12. Consensus expects headline inflation to ease slightly to around 3.4% YoY from 3.5%. But headline CPI is only part of the story. June core CPI was lower at 2.6%, so the real test is whether energy pressure begins spreading into underlying goods, housing and services. For crypto, weaker employment and wage growth can reduce pressure for tighter policy and pull Treasury yields lower. But if softer hiring develops into a deeper growth slowdown, the liquidity-positive interpretation becomes less straightforward. A hotter CPI, especially at the core level, could quickly revive hike pricing. A softer print would strengthen the case for holding rates steady and shift attention toward whether labor-market cooling continues. Will CPI confirm the post-payroll move toward no change, or put a September hike firmly back on the table? #PayrollsDropCPIFocus