#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Strategy is selling, SpaceX is about to deliver. In the same week, two narratives of "only buying, never selling" were broken simultaneously. 📉 Strategy: From "never selling" to active selling From July 27 to August 2, Strategy sold 1,638 BTC at an average price of $63,957, cashing out about $104.7 million. This is Strategy's first-ever active reduction, with holdings dropping from 843,775 to 842,138 BTC. The proceeds were split in half: about $52.4 million used to pay STRC preferred stock dividends, and about $52.3 million used to repurchase discounted STRC shares. On July 31, the board just announced a half-month cash dividend of $0.50 per STRC preferred share. As of August 2, Strategy holds 842,138 BTC with a total cost of about $63.5 billion, averaging $75,419 per BTC. At current prices, there is an unrealized loss of about $10.8 billion (-17%). Meanwhile, dollar reserves increased to $4 billion, and $81 million of STRC was repurchased. MSTR stock price has dropped over 60% this year. The "never sell" narrative officially ends, and the financing flywheel is rusting. 🚀 SpaceX: First earnings report + $25 billion short bets Tonight (August 4) after U.S. market close, SpaceX will release its first Q2 earnings report since going public. FactSet data shows market expectations of about $6.88 billion in Q2 revenue and an adjusted loss of about $0.23 per share. By business segment: Starlink is the absolute financial pillar. Analysts expect Starlink Q2 revenue of about $3.82 billion and operating profit of about $1.42 billion. SpaceX Q1 revenue was $4.69 billion with a loss of $1.27 per share. The rocket launch business is still losing money and is not expected to be profitable until at least fiscal 2026. But what really makes the market nervous is the lock-up expiration right after the earnings report. Starting August 6, insiders can sell up to 20% of restricted shares, totaling up to 911.5 million shares — doubling the tradable float from about 5% to about 12%. Currently, about 206 million SpaceX shares are shorted, accounting for about 32% of the float, with a nominal short size of about $25 billion. SPCX has fallen below $110, hitting its lowest level since listing. Elon Musk previously said SpaceX might increase revenue equivalent to Tesla's scale within 12-24 months. But the market is currently more concerned about: can Q2 revenue approach $6.9 billion? Is Starlink's user base still growing? Will insiders sell after the lock-up expiration? Two "only buy, never sell" narratives were broken simultaneously. Strategy is selling coins to pay dividends, SpaceX is delivering its first earnings report under short-selling pressure. One is an active capital structure adjustment, the other is the first public test after listing. Different directions, but both are going through the same phase — the market no longer believes the "never sell" story. $MSTR $SPCX