福禄寿炒币版
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Actually, there’s no need to be too pessimistic about the current market; it’s just necessary to accept one reality: the era of broad liquidity-driven rallies is unlikely to be replicated in the short term.
The last altcoin season in the crypto space was essentially inseparable from the Federal Reserve’s epic balance sheet expansion and the global zero interest rate environment. Massive liquidity flowed into risk assets, resulting in a crazy market where almost any coin could rise. Such a macro environment is unlikely to reoccur in the next few years, so continuing to rely on the experience of the last bull market and waiting for another altcoin season is a mistaken mindset.
However, this does not mean there are no opportunities in the market; opportunities are just increasingly concentrated in a few enterprises and projects that truly create value. Many crypto projects without revenue, users, or viability will gradually be eliminated, and capital will ultimately concentrate more and more on a few assets with genuine consensus, cash flow, and real use cases.
The same logic applies to the U.S. stock market. After the liquidity tide recedes, valuations can be cut, but companies that truly generate revenue, profits, and free cash flow will not lose their value just because of one cycle. Especially as AI is entering more and more real industries such as computing power, storage, networking, software, robotics, and healthcare, the biggest investment opportunities in the coming years are very likely hidden in this productivity revolution.
Investment thinking needs to change: seek assets that truly create value.
Embrace the consensus of BTC, embrace blockchain infrastructure that truly has value, embrace companies that can continuously generate cash flow, and more importantly, embrace the AI revolution. $BTC $TSLA
福禄寿炒币版
These past few months after this year's halving loss have made me completely realize one thing.
The money earned in the past few years was not entirely from knowledge monetization; more was granted by liquidity. During those years, the Federal Reserve unleashed epic liquidity, global liquidity overflowed, and the crypto space entered a season of altcoins. As long as you had capital, dared to buy, and held on, many assets could eventually make money.
The real test comes after the liquidity recedes.
When the market no longer rises universally, when valuations begin to contract, and when every transaction must be supported by fundamentals and logic, only then do you know which profits were given by the era and which truly belong to yourself.
This round of pullback is not a bad thing for me; it has made me respect the market again and understand that investment cannot mistake luck for strength, nor can it mistake a bull market for one's own ability.
In a bull market, you earn money from liquidity; in a bear market, you earn money from knowledge. Only by going through a complete bull and bear cycle can the money earned truly belong to you.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
The first batch of SpaceX lock-up expirations didn't crash; instead, it bounced back to the IPO price. I actually think we need to be more cautious here. Before the unlock, the market was unanimously bearish, so the first wave might have been a short squeeze; on August 20, about 7% more restricted shares will be unlocked. Whether the second round of chips can be held after the short squeeze ends will be the real stress test.
What’s more worth watching this week are the AI industry chain earnings reports. Lumentum and Coherent focus on 800G/1.6T optical communication demand, CoreWeave looks at GPU leasing and AI computing power demand, Applied Materials examines wafer fab capital expenditures, and Cisco can verify whether enterprise AI network upgrades have truly started spending.
Putting these earnings reports together just happens to answer one question: whether the huge AI Capex spent by Microsoft, Google, and Meta has actually translated into real orders along the chain from computing power → optical communication → networking → semiconductor equipment.
If all these lines continue to grow simultaneously, the current high valuation of AI still has earnings support; if order slowdowns and margin declines begin, the market will start to reprice the AI Capex cycle.
Trump's bluster tactic is back again: you block the strait, I block it too; you want to charge fees, I want to charge fees too; now you want compensation, I want compensation too.
Iran has made compensation and lifting sanctions conditions for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump directly countered by demanding compensation from Iran. The two sides gradually shifted from "how to resume navigation" to "who compensates whom," and oil prices responded first, with WTI and Brent both surging about 5% at one point, Brent approaching $88.
The real trouble lies in the subsequent transmission: Hormuz remains closed → crude oil prices rise → inflationary pressure increases → the Federal Reserve finds it harder to stop tightening. Cleveland Fed President Mester even said multiple rate hikes might be needed to bring inflation back to 2%.
This wave of oil prices has limited impact on the upcoming July CPI release, but if it stays high, it will gradually reflect in future inflation.
Just as the nonfarm payrolls put the brakes on rate hikes, the US and Iran have stepped on the gas again through oil prices.
The Bitcoin Red Team recently used AI to scan 150 Bitcoin-related code repositories and discovered 4,962 potential issues in less than 30 hours, of which 720 were assessed as high-risk or critical. Although final confirmation still requires human verification, the efficiency AI has demonstrated in code auditing and security is already remarkable.
Many things will change because of AI.
Software development is just the beginning; in the medical field, AI is assisting with imaging diagnostics, drug development, and life sciences research; in finance, AI is enhancing data analysis and decision-making efficiency; in manufacturing, AI combined with robotics is driving automation upgrades.
Many industries in the past relied on experience, manpower, and time accumulation, but AI is redefining productivity.
AI is not simply replacing a job position but amplifying human capabilities, making possible many things that were previously unattainable.
AI changes mental labor, and physical AI changes manual labor.
We are standing at the starting point of a new technological revolution; the future belongs to those who can understand AI, use AI, and master AI.
Embrace AI, embrace the AI revolution, embrace the future.
The BIP-110 Bitcoin fork fiasco has basically failed so far.
Miners supporting BIP-110, not recognizing the main chain rules, chose to fork out on their own. Roughnecks managed to mine two blocks on the new chain but then stopped producing blocks and announced a mining pause. The reason is simple: the hash power supporting it is only a tiny fraction, insufficient to maintain a competitive new chain.
So this is not a "split of the Bitcoin mainnet"; on the contrary, the BTC main chain has been running normally. BIP-110 was just a minority choosing to leave, and eventually found almost no one willing to follow.
This incident actually validates the simplest and most straightforward aspect of Bitcoin consensus: you can propose new rules and fork yourself, but ultimately miners, nodes, and the market will vote with real money.
In this stress test, the BTC main chain won.
Last week, spot ETF capital flow clearly warmed up. From August 3 to 7, there was a net inflow for five consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $854 million for the week, with the highest single-day net inflow on August 5 reaching $244 million. This may not be the absolute bottom, but after institutional funds returned, the area around $65,000 is increasingly credible as a mid-to-long-term bottom range. $BTC
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
The first batch of SpaceX's restricted shares has been unlocked, with up to approximately 911.5 million shares entering the sellable window. The market was originally expecting a sell-off after the unlock, but instead, the stock price rose about 6%.
My understanding is that it's still too early to say "the negative impact of the unlock has been digested." It seems more like a short squeeze before the decline. After the earnings report, with high capital expenditures, losses, and a huge unlock, the market's bearish expectations were too unanimous, and many funds shorted in advance. When the unlock actually happened, selling pressure did not immediately appear; instead, the stock price rose, which easily triggered short covering and stop losses, further amplifying the gains.
The real test comes after the short squeeze ends. If the unlocked shares continue to be released gradually and the stock price comes under pressure again, this rally looks more like creating liquidity for selling; if it can still withstand the selling pressure, then it means the negative impact of the unlock has truly been digested by the market.
So this 6% rise only means the shorts lost first; it does not yet mean the bulls have won.
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, far below the expected increase of 80,000, and May and June data were collectively revised down by 103,000. The cooling in employment is no longer just a one-month noise, and the market immediately lowered the expectations for a rate hike in September.
For financial markets, the most direct short-term benefit is the improved liquidity outlook: U.S. Treasury yields and dollar pressure have eased, giving risk assets like AI tech stocks, gold, and BTC some breathing room. But it's not time to pop the champagne yet; crude oil and inflation remain the biggest variables.
The real showdown ahead is CPI: if inflation continues to cool, the "weak employment + weak inflation" scenario will further limit the Federal Reserve's room to raise rates; if oil prices push CPI back up, it will become the most troublesome "weak employment + strong inflation" scenario.
Nonfarm payrolls have passed the ball to CPI, and the next inflation data will be the real decisive shot determining the direction of global liquidity.
Great news! My 4200 gold investment, which was stuck for 2 months, has finally broken even. I just don't believe that holding gold for three to five years can still lose money or fail to beat inflation. $XAUT
According to normal logic, with high interest rates, soaring US Treasury yields, geopolitical conflicts, ETF capital outflows, and tight liquidity, these factors in past cycles would have likely caused BTC to crash even harder. But this time, it has never experienced a true panic sell-off.
I don't think this is necessarily the absolute bottom; it’s possible that the price could fall below $60,000 or even a bit further. However, I believe this is more like a mid-to-long-term bottom range rather than a specific bottom price.
The reason is simple: those who really want to sell have mostly sold, while long-term funds, ETFs, and institutional funds from listed companies are continuously absorbing chips. The market's cost center has clearly risen, and BTC's bottom is gradually moving up with institutional entry. Data shows that a single price point of $63,000 has accumulated 1.15 million BTC, which is extremely rare historically.
There’s no need to guess the lowest point; instead, gradually build positions within the bottom range; keep buying as it falls, increase positions during crashes, and extend the time horizon to three to five years. Catch the fish body between the head and tail; the real profit-makers are those who dare to buy bit by bit in the bottom area when others are panicking.