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#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
The probability of a September rate hike returns to 50/50 $BTC $ETH
At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US will release the July CPI.
Current market expectations:
✔ Overall CPI year-on-year falls from 3.5% to 3.4%
✔ Core CPI year-on-year falls from 2.6% to 2.5%
✔ Probability of a September rate hike is about 52%
Last week's weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll data has pushed the September rate hike probability down from 67% back to 50/50. The real market trade now is which side— inflation or employment— the Fed should be more cautious about.
✔ CPI higher than expected
The probability of a September rate hike may heat up again, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, and BTC, ETH continue to face pressure.
Key BTC levels to watch are 63000–63500; if broken, it may test 62000 further; if ETH falls below 1850, be cautious of a further pullback to 1800–1820.
✔ CPI meets expectations
The market is unlikely to immediately end the 50/50 pricing; the market is more likely to experience a double-sided shakeout before awaiting PPI, retail data, and the next employment report.
BTC may continue to oscillate between 63000–66000, while ETH focuses on the 1850–1950 range.
✔ CPI lower than expected
The probability of a September rate hike continues to decline, and risk assets may rebound.
However, BTC needs to firmly hold above 66000, and ETH must break through 1950 and hold above 2000 to confirm that this is not just a short-term recovery driven by data stimulus.
This CPI release will rewrite the September rate hike pricing but will not directly decide whether the Fed will ultimately raise rates.
There is still another nonfarm payroll and CPI release before the September meeting; Wednesday is more like the first round of repricing, not the final answer.
✔ Trading rule
Never bet on the first candlestick after data release.
Data-driven moves often first sweep one side before moving in the real direction. Before repricing is complete, the win rate of the first candlestick may be zero.
My judgment is: CPI determines the short-term volatility direction, and key price levels determine whether the trend can continue. Data can create sentiment, but ultimately it depends on whether BTC can hold above 66000 and ETH can break through 1950.
Pinned
$SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU
SK Hynix pre-market today: I continue to be bearish, with a final target of 930
Last night, the memory sector did not rebound uniformly but showed clear divergence.
✔ SanDisk and Western Digital oversold recovery
✔ Micron and Seagate continue to weaken
✔ SK Hynix ADR continues to decline
✔ Selling pressure remains on DRAM, HBM, and AI semiconductor sectors
SK Hynix contracts have been falling continuously from around 1055, with both lows and highs moving downward, maintaining an overall bearish structure.
✔ Key prices to watch today
1050: My original short position entry
1045—1055: Strong resistance and ideal area to add to shorts
1015—1030: First rebound area to consider adding to shorts
1000: Short-term bull/bear dividing line
980—970: Current first support zone
950: Important support and position reduction observation point during the decline
930: Final take-profit target after breaking 950
1070—1080: If price stabilizes above this, the short logic fails
My final target is adjusted to 930, but 930 is not guaranteed unconditionally.
Price needs to effectively break below 980—970 first, then continue to break 950, and if the rebound cannot retake that level, only then will the space to 930 truly open.
If the price rebounds to 1015—1030 and forms a lower high, I will consider adding to shorts slightly; if it returns to 1045—1055 and is resisted again, that is a more ideal area to add to shorts.
Adding to shorts is not about adding more as price rises, but waiting for price to return to resistance, confirming the rebound failure before adding more shorts.
✔ Trading iron rule
Never bet on the first candlestick at the open, because before the market completes re-pricing, the win rate could be zero.
My view remains unchanged: SK Hynix is still weak on a large scale, rebounds are opportunities to add to shorts, watch for support at 950 first, and final take-profit at 930.
Snapshot at Aug 11, 2026, 07:34
Pinned
8.7｜100U Contract Challenge｜2nd Profit Withdrawal
Start Date: July 31
This Withdrawal: 47U
Account After Withdrawal: 100U
Total Withdrawn: 207U
Current Total Net Profit: 207U
【Challenge Rules】
✔ Initial principal fixed at 100U
✔ No additional principal added
✔ Withdrawal amounts and timing are flexible
✔ Each withdrawal is recorded separately
✔ Final profit = total withdrawn + account balance - 100U
【Personal Trading Rules】
✔ Do not pursue a high win rate, pursue a reasonable risk-reward ratio
✔ Accept judgment errors, do not prove yourself by holding losing positions
✔ Exit promptly when wrong, hold as much as possible when right
✔ Do not be affected by short-term profits or losses, strictly follow trading rules
✔ Control risk first, then consider profit
Currently mainly trading $ETH $SKHY $MU
Every confident trade will be documented in posts
Only personal trading records, not investment advice.
#Spot ETF Capital Inflow, Can BTC and ETH Take Over?
Recent BTC and ETH Market: Capital Has Returned, but the Trend Has Not Yet Returned $BTC $ETH
Recently, both BTC and ETH have experienced a rebound, but it can still only be defined as a range recovery; a major reversal has not yet been confirmed.
✔ BTC Price Structure
After BTC surged to 65000—66000 and then fell back, it is currently around 64000, indicating that selling pressure above remains significant.
63000—63500: Current first support
61500—62500: Retest area after breaking down
59000—60000: Major core support
65000—66000: Short-term main resistance
67000—68000: Second target after breakout
70000—72000: Pressure zone deciding if the major trend can reverse
As long as BTC holds 63000, the overall movement still belongs to the 60000—70000 large box range oscillation; but if it effectively breaks below 63000, the market will most likely retest 62000 or even fall back near 60000.
A true strengthening requires reestablishing above 66000 and further breaking through 70000—72000.
✔ ETH Price Structure
ETH has been repeatedly blocked around 1935—1950 and is currently back near 1870, with short-term strength clearly weaker than a few days ago.
1850—1870: Current first support
1800—1820: Ascending structure defense area
1700—1750: Deep retest zone after breaking 1800
1935—1950: Short-term main resistance
2000—2020: Round number and previous high resistance
2100—2200: Major trend recovery zone
If ETH can hold 1850 and climb back above 1895, there is still a chance to challenge 1950 and 2000 again.
If 1850 is effectively broken, the short-term rebound structure will weaken significantly, and the next step will most likely test 1800—1820. ETH’s major trend is only considered to start recovering once it firmly stands above 2000.
✔ Why Does the Price Still Struggle to Rise Despite ETF Capital Inflow?
Last week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow exceeding $1.1 billion, yet prices still did not break resistance levels.
This indicates that capital has indeed returned, but the new buying is being absorbed by selling pressure above. Currently, ETF funds provide support from below but have not created a supply vacuum to push prices through resistance continuously.
✔ Key Upcoming Events
On August 12, the US CPI will be released, and on August 13, the PPI will be announced; if inflation exceeds expectations, the US dollar and Treasury yields may strengthen again, making BTC and ETH likely to continue testing support downward. Conversely, cooling inflation would favor a rebound in risk assets.
On August 20 early morning, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be published, and the market will reassess the future interest rate path.
My judgment is: BTC remains in a large range between 60000—70000, while ETH is in a directional choice phase between 1850—2000.
BTC holding 63000 gives ETH a chance to continue the relay; once BTC breaks below 63000, ETH’s downside elasticity usually increases.
Before key events are announced, do not rush to bet on a one-sided move; wait for prices to truly break resistance or fall below support to confirm the next trend segment.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ $BTC $ETH
Spot ETF capital is flowing back, can BTC and ETH take over the relay?
Spot ETF capital is flowing back, BTC and ETH entering the relay verification stage
This round of capital inflow is no longer a single-day pulse.
From August 3 to 7, the US BTC spot ETF had net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $865 million; the ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $244 million for the whole week, with continuous inflows in the last four trading days. The combined inflow of the two exceeded $1.1 billion.
The first improvement from ETF capital inflow is usually not the speed of the rise, but the support at the bottom and market liquidity.
However, after BTC received a large amount of capital inflow, the price is still pressured around $65,000–$66,000, indicating that the selling pressure above is still absorbing the new buying volume. It can be confirmed that capital has flowed back, but it cannot yet be confirmed that a new round of breakout has begun.
The absolute inflow amount of ETH is lower than BTC, but considering the market cap difference between the two, ETH’s relative capital inflow strength is actually higher. This means that if BTC can break through and hold above $66,000, then enter a high-level consolidation, some capital may continue to rotate to ETH, pushing ETH to break through $1,950 and test $2,000.
Next, we mainly observe three conditions:
1. Whether BTC and ETH spot ETFs can continue to maintain net inflows
2. Whether BTC can hold above $66,000 and ETH can break through $1,950
3. After capital inflow, whether price and volume can strengthen synchronously
If ETFs continue to flow in, but BTC and ETH fail to break resistance and even form lower highs, caution is needed as selling pressure above remains stronger than new demand. At this time, ETF capital is only absorbing selling pressure and does not necessarily mean the market will continue to rise.
My judgment is that BTC is more like the first runner, and ETH is the more elastic second runner. Both have the conditions to continue the relay, but currently are still in the "capital inflow + resistance verification" stage and cannot yet be defined as a confirmed new upward trend.
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
SPCX surged to 141 then fell back to 135, more like a weekend short squeeze on $SPCX
Last night SPCX suddenly jumped from around 135 to 141.8, and many thought some major positive news had come out.
But I tend to believe this was a localized short squeeze driven by a combination of “positive sentiment + weekend premium + forced short liquidations,” not the spot market suddenly repricing SPCX to 141 USD.
First, note that 141.8 is not the Nasdaq spot price but the SPCXUSDT perpetual contract price.
Spot closed at 133.11 USD on Friday, and with US stock markets closed over the weekend, the perpetual contract lost its spot arbitrage constraint and the order book depth was relatively thin. Once concentrated buying appeared, the price was easily pushed up quickly.
141.8 represents about a 6.5% premium over the spot close, a spread that is difficult to sustain long-term.
Of course, this rally is not without fundamental support.
SPCX spot had already risen about 15.8% on Friday with a volume of 242 million shares. Argus upgraded its rating to “Buy” with a target price of 160 USD; the initial unlock did not see the expected concentrated sell-off.
These factors pushed market sentiment bullish.
But what really pushed the price quickly from 135 to 141.8 seems more like shorts being forced to cover.
In the past 24 hours, short liquidations totaled about 929,000 USD, nearly six times the long liquidations.
After breaking through 135, short stop-losses, forced liquidations, and chasing buyers all bought simultaneously, forming a typical short squeeze.
More importantly, open interest actually dropped about 7% after the surge.
If new longs were the main force entering, we would usually see price and open interest rising together; now the price surged sharply while open interest declined, indicating many buy orders came from short covering rather than new long positions.
This also explains why the price quickly fell back to 135 after hitting 141.
The buying from forced short liquidations is one-off.
Those who needed to stop loss did, those who had to liquidate did, and the mechanical buying demand disappeared; meanwhile, 141 was too expensive compared to the spot close, so profit-taking naturally began and the weekend premium faded.
Therefore, falling from 141 back to 135 does not necessarily mean the positive factors failed.
More accurately, after the short squeeze ended, the price returned near the spot anchor.
What really needs to be watched next is how the spot prices on Monday:
✔ Spot volume increases and holds above 135, indicating real capital willing to support, then there is a chance to challenge 141–142 again
✔ Holding between 133–135 likely leads to high volatility and consolidation
✔ Breaking below 133 or even 130 suggests the weekend rally was mainly driven by contract short squeezes
141.8 was a price squeezed out by weekend liquidity, premium, and forced short liquidations.
135 is the level that needs real spot capital validation.
babala又赚钱了
#SpaceX's first earnings report exceeds expectations, unlocking remains a key variable $SPCX
SpaceX rises after unlocking: unlocking does not equal bad news
Many people see "911.5 million shares unlocked" and automatically translate it as "911.5 million shares dumped."
This step is already wrong.
On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million shares simply changed from "cannot be sold" to "can be sold," it is not a new issuance and will not dilute the total share capital.
SpaceX currently has about 13.182 billion shares outstanding, and this unlocked batch accounts for only 6.9%. Even if all enter circulation, the theoretical float would only increase from 638.9 million shares to 1.55 billion shares, about 11.8% of total shares.
What really needs to be looked at is who can sell, at what cost, and whether the market can absorb it.
SpaceX has not disclosed the uniform average cost of this unlocked batch, but public data can provide some reference:
As of the end of March, the company still had 133.8 million Class A options with an average exercise price of $27.65; and 358.2 million Class B options with an average exercise price of only $8.22.
The most recent internal transaction price in December 2025 was $421, which, adjusted for this year's 5-for-1 split, is equivalent to $84.2 per share.
Compared to the current price of $133.11, many employees and early investors indeed still have significant unrealized gains. Reducing holdings, paying taxes, improving living standards, and diversifying risks are all normal, so potential selling pressure is not fake.
But "having profits" does not mean "selling all on the same day."
The employee resale filing submitted on August 4 covers about 136.95 million shares, about 15% of the nominal first batch unlocking scale, and registration to sell still does not mean the shares have been sold.
Why did the price rise after unlocking?
First, unlocking panic had already been priced in advance.
Before unlocking, SpaceX's stock price had retraced nearly half from the June high; concerns about unlocking, overvaluation, and huge capital expenditures had already been repeatedly priced in.
Second, market absorption was better than expected.
On the unlocking day, August 6, the price rose 6.1%, and the next day rose another 15.9%, closing at $133.11, with a single-day volume reaching 242 million shares.
Price rising on high volume rather than falling better indicates whether selling pressure is out of control than the "nominal number of shares unlocked."
Third, short positions were too crowded.
As of July 29, about 219.3 million shares of SpaceX were shorted, equivalent to 34% of the original float. The expected massive dumping did not occur, and short covering naturally amplified the rebound.
However, the recent rise cannot be entirely explained as "unlocking bad news fully priced in."
SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $3.538 billion; rating upgrades and the overall tech stock rebound also provided additional catalysts.
Meanwhile, the company's Q2 capital expenditure was as high as $18.369 billion, of which AI business accounted for $15.828 billion. This is the real long-term valuation issue to digest.
So my judgment is:
The first batch unlocking did not turn into the market-expected concentrated sell-off, indicating current absorption is stronger than expected, but supply pressure has not completely ended.
About 319 million shares will be released on August 20, with further batches unlocking in September and October. By December 8, theoretically, tradable shares may rise to 40% of total shares.
The key next is to see if the $135 issue price can hold with volume.
If subsequent unlocking continues to increase and the stock price can still hold $135, it means low-cost chips are truly being absorbed by the market.
Unlocking just opens the door.
The real bad news is if low-cost chips really run out and the market cannot absorb them.
#SpaceX's first earnings report exceeds expectations, unlocking remains a key variable $SPCX
SpaceX rises after unlocking: unlocking does not equal bad news
Many people see "911.5 million shares unlocked" and automatically translate it as "911.5 million shares dumped."
This step is already wrong.
On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million shares simply changed from "cannot be sold" to "can be sold," it is not a new issuance and will not dilute the total share capital.
SpaceX currently has about 13.182 billion shares outstanding, and this unlocked batch accounts for only 6.9%. Even if all enter circulation, the theoretical float would only increase from 638.9 million shares to 1.55 billion shares, about 11.8% of total shares.
What really needs to be looked at is who can sell, at what cost, and whether the market can absorb it.
SpaceX has not disclosed the uniform average cost of this unlocked batch, but public data can provide some reference:
As of the end of March, the company still had 133.8 million Class A options with an average exercise price of $27.65; and 358.2 million Class B options with an average exercise price of only $8.22.
The most recent internal transaction price in December 2025 was $421, which, adjusted for this year's 5-for-1 split, is equivalent to $84.2 per share.
Compared to the current price of $133.11, many employees and early investors indeed still have significant unrealized gains. Reducing holdings, paying taxes, improving living standards, and diversifying risks are all normal, so potential selling pressure is not fake.
But "having profits" does not mean "selling all on the same day."
The employee resale filing submitted on August 4 covers about 136.95 million shares, about 15% of the nominal first batch unlocking scale, and registration to sell still does not mean the shares have been sold.
Why did the price rise after unlocking?
First, unlocking panic had already been priced in advance.
Before unlocking, SpaceX's stock price had retraced nearly half from the June high; concerns about unlocking, overvaluation, and huge capital expenditures had already been repeatedly priced in.
Second, market absorption was better than expected.
On the unlocking day, August 6, the price rose 6.1%, and the next day rose another 15.9%, closing at $133.11, with a single-day volume reaching 242 million shares.
Price rising on high volume rather than falling better indicates whether selling pressure is out of control than the "nominal number of shares unlocked."
Third, short positions were too crowded.
As of July 29, about 219.3 million shares of SpaceX were shorted, equivalent to 34% of the original float. The expected massive dumping did not occur, and short covering naturally amplified the rebound.
However, the recent rise cannot be entirely explained as "unlocking bad news fully priced in."
SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $3.538 billion; rating upgrades and the overall tech stock rebound also provided additional catalysts.
Meanwhile, the company's Q2 capital expenditure was as high as $18.369 billion, of which AI business accounted for $15.828 billion. This is the real long-term valuation issue to digest.
So my judgment is:
The first batch unlocking did not turn into the market-expected concentrated sell-off, indicating current absorption is stronger than expected, but supply pressure has not completely ended.
About 319 million shares will be released on August 20, with further batches unlocking in September and October. By December 8, theoretically, tradable shares may rise to 40% of total shares.
The key next is to see if the $135 issue price can hold with volume.
If subsequent unlocking continues to increase and the stock price can still hold $135, it means low-cost chips are truly being absorbed by the market.
Unlocking just opens the door.
The real bad news is if low-cost chips really run out and the market cannot absorb them.
