Orbit: Crypto Community Feed

The earnings season for the storage sector has given a clear signal that performance can blow through the ceiling, but stock prices still fall. Financial report explosion is only the ticket, the guidance is the pricing anchor SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 372%, far exceeding the expected $8.39 billion; Adjusted EPS is $39.25, with a gross profit margin of 84.6%, reaching a historical high. Western Digital's revenue was $3.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%, which also exceeded expectations. Both companies delivered impeccable results, with SanDisk falling 7% after hours and Western Digital falling 11%. There is only one core reason: the guidance is not impressive enough. SanDisk's revenue outlook for the next quarter is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a median of $10.55 billion, lower than FactSet's expected $11.148 billion. Western Digital also faced disappointment of "not enough surprises." Citigroup lowered its target price for SanDisk from $2,500 to $2,100. What the market wants is not "good," but "better than expected." When expectations have been pulled to the ceiling, any number below "perfect" is penalized. The three forces that crush the plate are fermenting at the same time The sell-offs of SanDisk and Western Digital quickly spread throughout the storage chain. Kioxia and SK Hynix plummeted by more than 10%, while Samsung Electronics fell by more than 6%. The KOSPI index fell by 5%, SK Hynix fell by more than 9%, and Samsung Electronics fell by more than 6%. Daxin Securities clearly pointed out that SanDisk's lower-than-expected performance guidance weakened the market's investment confidence in the storage chip industry, and the significant pullback in the semiconductor sector became the main reason for the decline in KOSPI that day. Nvidia is evaluating a reduction in the HBM configuration of the Rubin Ultra from HBM4e 12Hi to 8Hi or other options. The reason is that the overall DRAM shortage in 2027 limits HBM wafer production capacity,$BTC #$SNDK #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？

$ETH Fam, the Bill Got Delayed Again! ETH Still Grinding at $1,900 Ethereum continues to consolidate around $1,900 — the catalyst everyone's been waiting for just isn't coming. The U.S. Senate postponed the CLARITY Act vote until after the September recess, with its 2026 passage odds now down to just 23%. Bernstein warns that no progress before the August recess could trigger a sell-off, but also expects a potential bottom by Q3 end to Q4 start. On the chart, ETH dipped below $1,900 before recovering slightly. **$1,990** marks a resistance zone with ~$770M in short liquidations above, while **$1,816** serves as the last line of defense for bulls. Volatility is extremely low with no clear direction. **Don't expect big moves before September — ETH likely remains range-bound around $1,900.** A volume-backed break above $1,990 would signal strength; a drop below $1,816 calls for caution. The longer the grind, the bigger the breakout — but this isn't the level to go all-in.#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $SOL

A lockup expiry can reveal more about positioning than fundamentals. SpaceX rising about 6% as up to 911.5M shares became eligible for sale suggests the immediate supply risk may have been more anticipated than feared. Still, the first post-IPO report leaves a harder test ahead: roughly $7.8B in revenue, up about 90% YoY, alongside a $541M net loss and concern over higher AI capex. My read is that the rebound buys management time, not immunity. From here, guidance, margins and cash discipline must turn the AI-space infrastructure thesis into measurable operating progress. Not advice, just analysis. #SpaceXUnlockRebound #OKXOrbit#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound

📊 Bitcoin Market Perspective The market has changed significantly, but one thing remains the same: sentiment. When $BTC was near $69K, many were waiting for $15K. Now, with BTC around $64K, many are watching for $126K. The key lesson is simple: **market cycles reward patience, discipline, and a long-term mindset.** Don’t follow the crowd—follow your strategy. 🧠📈 #AIMemoryBullTest #OKXTraderVoices #MorganStanleyETPs

#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 SanDisk's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock price dropped 15%, which is confusing to me. Last night, while lying on the sofa scrolling through my phone, I saw SanDisk released its earnings report. Revenue was 8.97 billion, surpassing the market expectation of 8.48 billion. EPS was $39.25, also beating estimates. They also approved a $14 billion buyback, and with the remaining from before, the total buyback can reach $15.5 billion. The numbers look pretty good, yet the stock fell more than 15% after hours. I stared at it for a while but still didn’t fully understand. After checking around, the market is talking about the Q1 guidance midpoint of 10.3 billion, which is lower than Wall Street’s expectations. Also, the stock had risen too much, expectations were set too high, and when the results came out and didn’t seem strong enough, it got sold off. Last year it rose more than sevenfold, climbing all the way to 2300, so any slight disturbance causes people to run. Additionally, the Changxin incident is also weighing on the whole sector sentiment. The performance itself is fine; AI storage demand is still supporting it. But the valuation is too high, expectations too elevated, so any slight disappointment leads to a sell-off. Retail investors cut losses, institutions unload shares. Good performance, stock price drops,,,, #DailyOrbit

😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking. Imagine you own a jewelry store. One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down." At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing." Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold. Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic? Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅 📊 What happened? • Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February. • ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected. • The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%. • Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz. • Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January. But here's what many people miss... 👀 Most people think gold only loves fear. This rally wasn't driven by panic. It was driven by lower interest rate expectations. Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve. Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns. Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion: 👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive. That's why buyers rushed in. 🧠 Key Insight Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive. They move when several narratives suddenly align. Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly. If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin?

If the $SPCX earnings report is positive, the stock release is not negative. What everyone should pay attention to is not the negative aspects, but the positive ones. Some people say the bearish trend has ended, but in fact, it hasn't. You don't have to sell your chips on the first day; you can do it on the second or third day. How many people have been stuck above 120 because of the phrase "I think so"? 910 million shares of stock, as long as there is one negative condition. Then it will create panic like a snowball effect. I said to exit at 105, but it's still 0.3 short. Now it's 114, and I'm not in a hurry. Not everyone is a staunch holder. They are just watching #EarningsObserver: Mixed results, lock-up period approaching! What's next for SpaceX?$SNDK

Storage stocks played the "earnings beat expectations, stock price crashes" game again Let's start with SanDisk. Earnings revenue was 8.97 billion, beating the market expectation of 8.48 billion, and they also approved a 14 billion buyback authorization, totaling 15.5 billion in buybacks. Western Digital's revenue was 3.747 billion, also exceeding expectations. Normally, with such results in previous years, the stock price would have taken off directly, right? But SanDisk fell 15% after hours, and Western Digital dropped 11%. The reason is just one: the next quarter guidance midpoint is 10.55 billion, while Wall Street wanted 11.16 billion. A 600 million shortfall caused the stock price to collapse 15%. The key is that both companies have risen three to four times or more this year, and institutional holders have huge unrealized gains. Once the earnings report came out, even if it was just "not more than expected," they treated it as bad news to sell off. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Now look at SpaceX. With a 100 billion unlock, 911 million shares can be sold. The market previously unanimously shouted "it's going to crash," but it actually rose 6%, closing at 114.92. But looking closely, on Wednesday it dropped 14%, already having a round of sell-off. Whether it has truly bottomed or is a dead cat bounce, no one can say for sure. #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Then there's the Federal Reserve. ADP small nonfarm payrolls were 44,000, market expectation was 75,000, hitting a six-month low. But despite weak employment, the market's pricing of rate hike expectations is not so easily loosened because multiple Fed officials continue to emphasize high inflation risks and that they can't be led by single-month employment data. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Putting these three things together, the logic is very clear: good companies do not equal good stocks, good performance does not equal stock price increase. SanDisk's performance was good enough, right? #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh would be open to a September rate hike if upcoming inflation data comes in hot and markets begin pricing in higher borrowing costs, according to people familiar with his thinking. The report adds to the renewed focus on whether the Fed may have to turn more hawkish if inflation pressure reaccelerates. 2. Michael Burry reportedly opened large short positions in Nebius $NBIS at $211.77 and Oracle $ORCL at $144.63, marking the first time he has taken a position in $NBIS. Burry framed the trade around AI infrastructure leverage and off-balance-sheet obligations, saying: “The fish have gorged themselves on off-balance sheet liabilities. Backstops. Uncommenced leases. Purchase commitments. The fish have gotten very fat, very large, easy to shoot. Also, so large that it shan’t be long before every last one keels over for lack of oxygen.” 3. Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI reported Q2’26 revenue of $191.9M, slightly ahead of estimates of $190M and up 86% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.06 versus $0.01 expected, while non-GAAP net income reached $5.5M, above estimates of $1.7M. For Q3, the company guided revenue to $255M–$290M versus $278M expected, with EPS of $0.11–$0.26 and non-GAAP gross margin of 29%–30.5%. Management said AAOI delivered record revenue for the 5th consecutive quarter and returned to non-GAAP profitability, while noting that demand is expected to outpace production capacity through mid-2027. 4. The June JOLTS report showed job openings easing by 178,000 to 7.359M, missing estimates of 7.454M, though openings remain above the January 2020 level of 7.124M. The openings-to-unemployed ratio edged up to 1.04, the highest since January 2025. Hiring improved, with hires rising 96,000 to 5.348M and the hiring rate increasing to 3.4%, led by health care and construction. Quits, a key measure of labor market confidence, rose 79,000 to 3.232M, the highest in nearly a year, while layoffs were essentially flat at 1.766M with the layoff rate unchanged at 1.1%. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.9M contracts, $SPCX with 1.7M contracts, $AAPL with 1.3M contracts, $TSLA with 1.2M contracts, $MU with 820K contracts, $MSFT with 690K contracts, $INTC with 586K contracts, $HTZ with 584K contracts, $PLTR with 477K contracts, and $ET with 473K contracts. 6. Private business investment in AI-related categories jumped $300B YoY in Q2 2026, up 25% to a record $1.5T annualized rate. The increase was led by spending on computers and peripheral equipment, followed by communication equipment, software, and data centers. Over the last two years, AI-related business investment has surged $500B, or 50%, with investment in computers and peripherals more than doubling. Direct AI investment is now estimated to account for 25%–33% of recent U.S. GDP growth. 7. Google $GOOGL is reportedly planning to raise money through a U.S. investment-grade bond offering. The company has started marketing notes in as many as 10 parts, with maturities ranging from 2 years to 40 years, according to Bloomberg. Initial price talk for the longest-dated tranche is around 1.55 percentage points above Treasuries. 8. Tether purchased 14 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, bringing total holdings to a record 146 tonnes, now worth roughly $18.8B. The company previously bought 53 tonnes between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, with its gold holdings more than doubling since Q1 2025 and their value nearly tripling over the same period. Tether is now the largest known private holder of gold outside of central banks and governments. In the first half of 2026, only 4 central banks bought more gold than Tether: Poland, Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan. 9. Amazon $AMZN founder Jeff Bezos filed for the sale of 1,209,649 Amazon shares at $286.41 per share. The transaction brought in roughly $346.5M before taxes. 10. U.S. data center construction spending jumped 46% YoY in June to a record $68B annualized rate, the largest annual increase in 12 months. Since January 2024, spending has surged 158% and is now more than 3x higher than 2022 levels. At the same time, office construction spending has fallen by more than $25B since 2022 to roughly $43B, the lowest since 2016. Data center construction now exceeds office construction by $25B, the widest gap on record, a massive reversal from 2022 when office construction was $57B higher than data centers. 11. Trading activity in the Memory ETF $DRAM has surged to extreme levels, with daily volume reaching as high as roughly $8B, surpassing the $5B peak that ARKK hit during its 2020–2021 mania. Cumulative flows into $DRAM have climbed to around $27B, already above ARKK’s peak of roughly $18B, despite DRAM only launching in April 2026. The comparison is not perfect since DRAM tracks profitable memory chip companies rather than the mostly unprofitable growth names that dominated ARKK, and today’s rate environment is very different from 2020. Still, ARKK’s flows eventually peaked and reversed for years, while $DRAM is already down nearly 40% from its June high. 12. Alibaba $BABA reportedly plans to seek revenue sharing for the next version of its open-source Qwen AI model, while Moonshot is asking partners for up to a 30% revenue share for its Kimi K3 model, according to Reuters. The move suggests China’s leading AI labs are starting to push harder on monetization as open-source model adoption scales. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

BREAKING: PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SAID THE #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO CLARITY ACT MUST PASS OR AMERICA WILL LOSE TO CHINA "I BELIEVE CRYPTO IS VERY IMPORTANT. IF WE DON'T HAVE IT CHINA WILL HAVE IT" EVERY NATION WANTS TO LEAD ON CRYPTO: "CHINA WANTS IT. JAPAN WANTS IT. OTHER COUNTRIES REALLY WANT IT" "MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE PAYING WITH BTC" "WE''RE TALKING ABOUT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS" "THEY DON'T EVEN KNOW ABOUT CASH ANYMORE" IT'S TIME TO PASS THE BILL 🔥