Today’s market buzz

U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July versus ~80,000 expected, while May-June data were revised down by 103,000, signaling faster cooling. Yet unemployment fell to 4.1%, largely as participation declined. CME put the odds of a 25 bp September hike at ~44%, while Kalshi showed ~65% odds of no change next month. Sticky inflation remains the key risk: a hotter CPI next week could revive hike bets. For crypto, the question is whether CPI will rewrite September policy pricing after the payroll shock.