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金石(互动)
金石(互动)
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长鑫开盘3.31万亿元:追涨太贵,做空又怕继续涨 长鑫科技开盘49.5元,总市值3.31万亿元,距离4万亿元只差约21%。 按全年900亿至1100亿元利润估算: 2万亿元对应18至22倍市盈率,对照美光、SK海力士,还能解释; 3.31万亿元对应30至37倍,已经加入了国产替代、市场热度和低流通带来的加价。 现在最尴尬的是:估值已经很高,但上市初期只有6.73%的股票能交易。按开盘市值计算,真正可以交易的部分约2230亿元。卖出的股票少,即使价格贵,也可能继续被资金推高。 我的选择是不追涨,也不做空。与其在3万亿元以上赌涨跌,不如关注被长鑫吸走资金、但公司本身没有变差的其他半导体股票。 #XCMT $XCMT
金石(互动)
金石(互动)
长鑫科技周一上市,多少市值买入才算合理?
First, conclusion: Based on Changxin's profits and the price-to-earnings ratios of the world's three largest storage companies, Changxin's reasonable valuation is between 1.7 trillion and 2.1 trillion yuan. Given the scarcity of leading domestic DRAM companies, the market may offer a premium valuation of 2.1 to 3 trillion yuan. If combined with a low circulation ratio of 6.73% and market sentiment from South Korea's recently announced $950 billion semiconductor cooperation, there is a possibility of an intraday impact of 3 to 4 trillion yuan. 1. Based on profits and peer price-to-earnings ratios, what is Changxin worth? As of the close on July 24, the data for the world's three major storage companies was roughly as follows: Samsung Electronics: market value about 7.35 trillion yuan, 12-month profit about 386.7 billion yuan, price-to-earnings ratio about 20 times; SK Hynix: market value about 5.95 trillion yuan, 12-month profit about 348.7 billion yuan, price-to-earnings ratio about 17 times; Micron: market value about 7.04 trillion yuan, 12-month profit about 341.8 billion yuan, price-to-earnings ratio about 21 times. Based on Changxin's 2026 net profit of 100 billion yuan: a market value of 2.1 trillion yuan, corresponding to a 21x P/E ratio; A market value of 3 trillion yuan, corresponding to a 30x price-to-earnings ratio; A market value of 4 trillion yuan corresponds to a 40x price-to-earnings ratio. As a result, Changxin reached 2.1 trillion yuan, with a valuation roughly close to international peers. Changxin is not as big as the top three in scale, technology, and customers, but it is the only A-share company capable of large-scale DRAM production, and the market may offer some domestic substitution and a scarcity premium. It should be noted that three international companies use nearly 12

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