Post

The upcoming U.S. earnings reports over the next month basically represent a concentrated exam on the AI theme. Many people only look at the stock price changes on the earnings day, but I think it's more important to consider several questions: Is AI still burning cash? Are cloud providers still willing to continue increasing Capex? Have semiconductor equipment orders dropped? Is the demand for storage and HBM really holding up? Can data center power, cooling, and networking continue to benefit? Looking at this calendar, the coverage is very comprehensive. Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon focus on cloud computing, AI advertising, and AI infrastructure investment. Tesla focuses on autonomous driving, Robotaxi, energy storage, and whether the market is still willing to give it long-term growth potential. Intel, AMD, Arm, Qualcomm focus on chip design and computing power cycles. KLA, Lam Research, Teradyne focus on semiconductor equipment and testing demand; these companies often reflect industry chain confidence in advance. SK Hynix, Kioxia, Western Digital, SanDisk, Seagate focus on the storage cycle, especially whether categories like HBM, DRAM, SSD, HDD continue to have price increases and expansion logic. Vertiv, Eaton, Arista focus on the "shovel-selling" business behind data centers: power, cooling, switches, and network infrastructure. Palantir, ServiceNow, Datadog, Atlassian, Figma focus on whether AI software has moved from storytelling to real paid usage. So this is not an ordinary earnings calendar. It’s more like a health checkup for the AI industry chain. If cloud providers continue to raise capital expenditures, it means AI infrastructure is still ongoing. If storage companies continue to give strong guidance, it means demand for HBM and server DRAM is still there. If equipment companies have healthy orders, it means wafer fab expansion expectations have not been interrupted. If software companies start to show AI revenue, it means AI is not just burning cash but also entering commercialization. Conversely, if these companies collectively release cautious signals, the market will reprice. Because many tech stocks this year have risen not based on current profits but on AI growth expectations over the next few years. The higher the expectations, the lower the earnings tolerance. My view is: The most important things to watch in this earnings season are not who beats expectations by a few points, but three keywords: Capex. Guidance. Demand sustainability. In the short term, stock prices will be driven by sentiment, but in the medium to long term, what really determines the market is whether the industry chain continues to invest money. If the AI theme is not falsified, volatility is just volatility. But if investment starts to slow and orders weaken, the market will switch from "storytelling" back to "counting profits." In the coming weeks, tech stocks will reveal the answers company by company. Spectators watch price changes. True investors watch whether the main theme has changed.