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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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关于《清晰法案》没有等到图恩参议院延迟休会的通知,但是等到了法案整体推迟的确定性消息 8月7日参议院夏季休会不会延迟,且清晰法案明确不在休会前进行程序投票,明确9月14日复会后第一时间对清晰法案走程序 接下来关注重点转移,本周原本的关注点是能否在8月休会前投票,接下来关注点是图恩合适提交file cloture(动议结束),一旦提交cloture意味着将要对法案进行投票 关注时间节点,在参议院剩余1天的会议期间,要注意图恩是否提交cloture, 如果在参议院议员离开华盛顿前提交cloture,意味着最早9月15日将会对《清晰法案》进行全员投票, 如果本阶段图恩没有提交cloture,意味着复会后提交cloture,那么最早的程序投票将会在9月16日出现 这是今天到明天我们要关注的重点,而对于法案本身来说,9月回归再来投票,其实并非那么乐观 一旦进入9月中期大选期间,各个议员的投票都会因为大选变得更加谨慎,支持法案的条件与门槛也会提高,这就导致9月份锁定60票的难度更大 清晰法案的动议结束需要60票,而根据目前消息来看,能否锁定50票还充满了不确定性,所以60票的难度可能要在这一个月的空窗期进行博弈了。 如果图恩可以在离开华盛顿前提交了cloture,我认为图恩的信心会更大一点!#CLARITY投票或延至9月,伦理分歧未解
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Can Tim Scott really turn the tide? Can the Republican Party really exclude dissenters and then find enough Democratic votes to start the voting process? As the "Clear Act" approaches Friday, it still hasn't entered Senate procedures close to the Senate summer recess window. Tim Scott proposed a new viewpoint, stating that the Republicans will definitely hold a procedural vote on the Clear Act before the recess, even suggesting the Senate will decide to delay the recess. Tim Scott is considered a temporary spokesperson for Trump, because this week Trump expressed that the recess could be delayed to hold a procedural vote on the "Clear Act," aiming to buy enough time for the bill. However, whether the Senate can delay the recess depends on the statement from Majority Leader Schumer. So far, Schumer has not made a clear statement on this, so whether the Senate can delay the recess is unknown. Meanwhile, the market #Bitcoin has not shown optimistic pricing; the price remains volatile, and on polymarket, the probability of procedural passage before recess is as low as 17%. Obviously, Tim Scott's viewpoint seems optimistic, but the actual driving force still lacks verification. The current difficulty for the Republicans is to first reach a high degree of consensus within the party, then persuade some Democrats to initiate the procedure, and currently, the possibility remains very low. At this stage, the focus is not on the Clear Act but on whether Senate Majority Leader Schumer will announce a delay to the recess. Without resolving this issue, it will be very difficult for the Clear Act to enter Senate procedures! #财报观察员:业绩喜忧参半,解禁将至!SpaceX后续怎么看?

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