This wave of $SOL is really weak, while $BTC and $ETH are both oscillating upwards, $SOL is oscillating downwards. 1. The 6 spot ETFs of SOL have had zero net inflow for 54 consecutive days from the 3rd to the 6th, it seems the institutional players are losing steam, with no new buying support. 2. Moreover, it has dropped 10.34% in the last 30 days, breaking technical levels, falling below several short-term moving averages, which can be considered entering a downtrend channel. 3. There haven't been any positive catalysts recently, so it seems hard for it to break out with volume and hold above. The burn vote on the 18th might be a hope, but it requires 15% staking support, which is uncertain. 4. Mainly, I don't see any improvement in the macro environment either, so it's still hard for it to strengthen. For friends wanting to bottom-fish, I suggest waiting a bit longer

$SKHYNIX paid dividends, so why did the price drop instead of rise? Because dividends don’t cause a mindless price increase. Generally, the relationship between stock dividends and stock price is as follows: 1. First-time dividend / resuming dividends: This usually causes the biggest rise because it means the company has matured, cash flow is stable, and it attracts funds looking to earn dividends. (SK Hynix announced too early in advance, and the price had already risen by the time of the announcement) 2. Dividend increase: This usually causes a rise because it means the company is making more money, and profitability has exceeded everyone’s expectations. 3. Special dividends / buyback and cancellation: This also likely causes a rise because it is a sudden dividend and can directly reduce shares and boost EPS, which is one of the most recognized ways to return value. 4. Dividend decrease / falling short of expectations: SK Hynix is this case, and this usually causes a drop, indicating that the market had previously overestimated the company, leading many funds to withdraw. So, in summary: it’s not the act of paying dividends that makes the stock price rise, but whether the dividend action exceeds market expectations that determines the price movement. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？

Tonight's non-farm payroll data will be released; hopefully, it won't drag down the market or disrupt $ETH's current upward consolidation trend: 1. ETF has seen four consecutive weeks of net inflows with increased volume (structurally strong). 7-day net inflow is 99 million, and 30-day net inflow exceeds 300 million, indicating continuous institutional buying. 2. Moreover, smart money is locking up: staked supply has risen to 37.85M ETH, showing funds are moving into staking. I even saw a whale directly stake 112,000 ETH. 3. In the second half of the year, there is anticipation for the Glamsterdam upgrade, which expands blob capacity and includes built-in PBS, a potential positive catalyst. Although no activation date is set, expectations are being priced in early. The EIP-8361 proposal (which burns validator rewards if staking exceeds 50% of supply) also supports a long-term deflationary narrative. 4. Of course, after all this, the direction will ultimately depend on tonight's non-farm and inflation data. If non-farm and inflation are weak, ETH's high beta elasticity is greatest, possibly holding above 2000; if strong, the $1,850 support will be at risk.

Next, $BTC is indeed expected to trend upward with some volatility. If there is no major negative news from the non-farm payrolls, the weekly candle should close higher this week. 1. ETF funds are flowing back and accelerating (strongest support) In the past 7 days, ETF net inflows have reached 660 million, directly reversing the 760 million net outflow trend over the past 30 days. Yesterday alone saw a net inflow of 30 million, indicating institutions have switched from selling to buying, which is the strongest foundation for the rebound. 2. Of course, the key is tonight's non-farm payrolls + inflation data: employment and inflation data are being released intensively today (report not yet published). Weak data → rate cut expectations rise → risk assets go up; strong data → dollar/yields capped. The clear bill is already expected by everyone not to pass in August, so a failure should not cause major fluctuations. 3. Macro remains the ceiling: The Fed interest rate stays at 3.50–3.75%, but rate hike expectations for September are heating up, and US Treasury yields remain high, capping the upside. Cooling negotiations in the Middle East/Hormuz are a minor positive. Price levels above 66,000 will definitely not hold without volume. 4. Sentiment is fearful but not collapsed: Fear & Greed Index at 26 (fear), the 30-day low was 19, now not at extreme panic.

$OKB's sideways movement is so tiring, no volatility at all, and it doesn't follow the broader market: 1. Independent sideways between 83-90u, with extremely low volatility at only 16.11. Fortunately, the upper limit is locked, so there's no panic from additional issuance, preventing a big drop. 2. The main issue is the lack of a breakout catalyst. Its daily trading volume is only 8.34 million. Unless OKX makes a big move, its price will keep grinding within this range. Its trend depends not on external catalysts but on OKX itself, such as OKX's trading volume, fee discounts, staking, listing sentiment, and so on. 3. Of course, low daily volume has an advantage: a single large order can push the price up by a few points. As long as there's a hot topic, it's easy to pump the price. But indeed, it's hard to have hot topics in a bear market. 4. This week, OKB has basically been sideways as well, making it hard to break out. It feels like OKB is very suitable for a "grid/income" strategy, doing small arbitrage within a range.