Tonight is the non-farm payrolls report, finally the moment to reveal the real answer. The ADP data has already lowered market expectations to 44,000, a new low for the year. But initial jobless claims are still hovering below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks. On one hand, employment is cooling down; on the other, companies are not laying off. The market expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 70,000 to 80,000. This number is very important—if it's lower, the probability of a rate hike continues to drop, and gold and BTC will keep rallying. If it's higher, inflation concerns return, and risk assets will take a hit first. Before the non-farm data arrives, the market is already trading in advance. Gold $XAU climbed back above 4300 this afternoon, the logic is the clearest: weak employment → easing rate hikes → weaker dollar → gold rises. Since the ADP release, gold hasn't dropped, and despite technical overbought conditions, it hasn't corrected, clearly betting on continued weak data tonight. $BTC is hovering around 65,000. ETFs are still seeing net inflows, but Coinbase premiums have been negative for 80 consecutive days, with U.S. institutions selling and Asia buying, offsetting each other. The market is divided and direction is unclear. Gold is already reflecting weak employment expectations, while BTC is still waiting for a clear signal. SanDisk $SNDK rose 3% pre-market but fell 6.81% last night; today's pre-market gain is less than half of yesterday's loss. Earnings beat expectations and a 14 billion buyback were announced, yet it still fell 7% after hours, indicating the market has fully priced in high expectations. If tonight's non-farm data is weak, SanDisk could rebound. If strong, high-valuation growth stocks will continue to be under pressure. SpaceX rose 6% on its lockup expiration day, which is quite interesting. Over 900 million shares unlocked, nearly a hundred billion dollars of potential selling pressure, the market originally expected a crash, but it rose instead. Institutions are willing to buy at this level, so short-term sentiment may have bottomed. However, resistance around 120 remains a pressure point; without a volume breakout, it can only be considered a rebound. Tonight there are four directions—gold, BTC, SanDisk, and SpaceX. The non-farm data will set the direction, whether down or up, it all depends on that one number. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？

ADP data at 44,000, hitting a new low for the year. According to textbook logic Weak employment → lower rate hike expectations → positive for non-interest assets Gold should rise, and indeed gold has stood above 4300, but after surging it fell back to around 4250. Whether gold can hold above 4300 or even push higher depends critically on tonight's nonfarm payroll data. But on the same day as ADP, initial jobless claims came in at 199,000, below 200,000 for the third consecutive week, the lowest since September 2022. Two employment data points, one says employment is collapsing, the other says employment is very stable. The market is caught between two directions: on one side the weak signal from ADP, on the other the resilience shown by initial claims. Goldman Sachs and Barclays say ADP's predictive power for nonfarm payrolls has never been strong and is more easily skewed by small and medium enterprise samples. Low initial claims indicate companies are not conducting large-scale layoffs, just being cautious about hiring. The market calls this "low hiring, low layoffs." While employment data is conflicting, the Fed also lacks a unified stance. Cook said, "If inflation doesn't cool down, I'm ready to act," Schmidt said rates are "not restrictive enough" and may need to rise, while Bessent said "no need to raise rates at this stage." Three people, three different views. CME shows about a 55% chance of a rate hike in September, half betting yes, half no. The impact on assets is very interesting. SanDisk $SNDK fears rate hike expectations the most. Revenue at 8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, gross margin 84.6%, and approved a 14 billion buyback, yet shares fell 7% after hours. Good earnings but stock price dropped because the market fears the future interest rate environment, not past performance. Gold $XAU has the clearest logic. Weak ADP → lower rate hike probability → weaker dollar → gold rises. When it stood above 4300, it was trading rate expectations. $BTC is awkward. With the same macro script, gold surged, BTC is stuck at 64,000. ETF money is flowing in, with a single-day net inflow of $243 million on August 6, but the price remains flat. Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, US institutions are selling, Asia is buying. Fed internal divisions are large, with rate cut expectations and rate hike risks pulling against each other, BTC is caught in the middle grinding. Gold is trading rate expectations, BTC is waiting for its own catalyst. It's not that BTC is ignoring macro, but macro itself is directionally unclear, and funds don't know which way to bet. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls and next Thursday's CPI will decide whether there will be a rate hike in September. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？

Let's talk about the reaction of storage stocks after this earnings report wave; I really can't quite understand it. SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%. Adjusted EPS was $39.25, 135 times that of the same period last year. Gross margin hit 84.6%. Data center business revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter and surged 1298% year-over-year. They also approved a $14 billion buyback. Western Digital was similar, with revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year, adjusted EPS of $3.56, up 109% year-over-year. Net profit soared 12 times. Any single earnings report alone is a dominating performance. And then? SanDisk fell 7% after hours, Western Digital dropped 11%. The next day pre-market, SanDisk continued down 8%, Western Digital down 15%. The Asia-Pacific market followed suit, with the South Korean composite index dropping over 5%, SK Hynix down nearly 10%, Samsung Electronics down over 6%. The better the performance, the harder the fall. This script has been replayed repeatedly this year—SK Hynix fell 30% intraday after Q2 earnings, Samsung's profit surged 1810% but its stock price fell 6%. Where's the problem? It's in the guidance. SanDisk's next quarter revenue guidance is $10.3 to $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion. What was the market expectation? $10.8 to $11.16 billion. A difference of less than $600 million caused a 9% stock price collapse. Western Digital is even more unfair; next quarter revenue guidance midpoint is $4.1 billion, actually higher than analysts' expectation of $4.06 billion. Yet it still fell 15% after hours. Goldman Sachs analysts said it bluntly: "The core contradiction currently facing the storage industry is not a deterioration in fundamentals, but that market expectations have outpaced reality." It's not that storage is failing, but the market's expectations for storage have reached a point where "you must be perfect, must exceed expectations every time, and must significantly raise guidance." It's not enough to be profitable now; you have to be even more profitable in the future. SanDisk has risen over 460% this year, Western Digital over 200%. The market has long priced in the benefits of AI storage supply shortages, price increases, and explosive earnings growth. When earnings land and no new outperformance appears, profit-taking naturally becomes the choice. There's another variable many may have overlooked: Nvidia is evaluating lowering the HBM configuration of Rubin Ultra. Originally planned to use HBM4e 12hi, now also evaluating an 8hi option in parallel. The reason is that the DRAM supply shortage pattern will continue until 2027. This is a double-edged sword for storage manufacturers—continued HBM tightness means the price increase logic remains, but it also means AI chip shipments may be bottlenecked by HBM, which in turn limits the growth space of the entire industry chain. If Nvidia really downgrades, will the demand expectations for high-end HBM be repriced? This is the calculation the market is making now. So has the storage market peaked? I think we shouldn't rush to conclusions. SanDisk has signed 10 long-term agreements covering 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion. About 50% of shipment bits for fiscal 2027 are already locked in. The CEO said frankly—"We want to enhance overall business predictability and anti-cyclical resilience, breaking free from the industry's past cycle of wild swings." This is not just rhetoric; it's truly transforming SanDisk from a cyclical stock relying on price to an infrastructure supplier earning through long-term contracts. Short-term stock price fluctuations are market sentiment venting; the long-term logic hasn't changed. AI storage demand remains, capacity is still insufficient, and long-term contracts are still being signed. It's just that market expectations ran too fast, stock prices rose too sharply, and any "not surprising enough" guidance gets hammered. The storage fundamentals haven't broken; the problem is market expectations. When expectations and reality realign, that's the real time to watch. $SNDK $BTC $SKHYNIX #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？

After several consecutive days of continuous rise, this morning gold directly hit 4300, silver also broke through $62, and COMEX gold futures were even more aggressive, reaching a high of $4267. It rose more than 3% intraday. All because of one data point, the ADP employment report: in July, the US private sector only added 44,000 jobs, while the market expected 65,000 to 75,000. The expectation gap was huge, causing a direct explosion. With such weak employment, expectations for rate hikes cooled down, the dollar fell, US Treasury yields dropped, and gold and silver both soared. But BTC is still hovering around 64,000, rising less than 1%, almost unchanged. I just want to ask, isn't BTC supposed to be digital gold? Gold rose 3%, you didn’t even hit 1%, what kind of digital gold is that? In the first half of last year, BTC and gold still had a clear positive correlation, but this year it has turned negative. Gold has risen 9% this year, BTC has fallen 11%. Analysts at Deutsche Bank directly said BTC is "no longer digital gold." Peter Schiff was even more direct, saying the correlation between BTC and gold never really existed. Though harsh, the data is clear. So what exactly is BTC following? The US stock market? The S&P and Nasdaq are both rising, but BTC isn’t following. ETF funds? On Tuesday, there was a net inflow of $211.5 million, but the price still didn’t move. Geopolitical easing? There has been progress in US-Iran talks, but no stimulus effect. BTC’s current state is that it can’t fall further nor rise, hovering around 64,000, waiting for a real catalyst. This catalyst could be an actual rate cut, regulatory news, or some big institutional move. But at least it’s not the rise of gold. My own view is that the "digital gold" story is becoming less and less convincing by 2026. It’s not that BTC is bad, but its pricing logic is completely different from gold’s now. Gold trades on interest rate expectations and safe haven demand, BTC trades on other things—possibly liquidity, possibly regulation, possibly its own cycles. So next time someone tells you BTC is digital gold, you can throw yesterday’s candlestick chart in their face. When gold rose 3%, BTC was sleeping at 64,000. That’s the answer. $BTC $SNDK $XAU #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？

The earnings report is out, and this thunderbolt was ultimately triggered. Did the friends with pending orders get filled? I didn't, but it's still a bit of a small blessing. Putting aside SanDisk's earnings report, the drop in SanDisk $SNDK was expected. The line in the first chart was drawn by me a long time ago, a classic downtrend. Plus, SanDisk's earnings really didn't meet expectations, so the drop was fierce, completely swallowing the bullish candles from the past few days. At this point, playing the right side is definitely much better than the left side; once the trend emerges, it just keeps falling without looking back. Once SanDisk's earnings came out, as expected this morning, the storage sector, Hynix, and the Korean index $EWY all headed straight for circuit breakers. Looking deeper, I think Korean retail investors are just too easy to fool. But one point worth the community's attention is gold $XAU. Brothers, gold has climbed back above 4300. This strong rally is indeed because other sectors like Bitcoin, tech stocks, or other concepts are not getting much attention, so ultimately people still choose to trust rare metals like gold and silver. Keep it up, brothers! Even though we didn't get filled on SanDisk this time, don't lose heart. Let's keep pushing 😁 #SanDiskEarningsMiss #SanDiskEarningsEve, HBF and storage shortages spark heated discussion

Here it comes, here it comes, after a month I got paid again hahaha Thanks to CCTV, thanks to the white clouds ☁️, thanks to the black soil, hahaha Everyone trade more, I'll list a few coins you can trade $SNDK is a volatile US stock meme coin, pay close attention to the earnings report tonight $BTC is the big one, currently the big players say to trade on the right side, because the daily chart has indeed recovered from the bearish candle, so trade but be very careful, careful, and careful again $SPCX is also a hopeless coin, come on, rise up for me, ah ah ah ah #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 #OKX星球话题来啦