$OKB short position floating loss of 14 points, then it rose again Lying on the sofa at night, I checked OKB again. Opening price 86.87, current price 88.12, floating loss of 14 points. Feeling annoyed, but the loss isn't big, so I'll hold on for now. After checking the news, I found out there's a reason for OKB's rise. NYSE parent company ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested in OKX, with a valuation of about $25 billion, and will take a seat on the board. This cooperation allows OKX to use ICE's crypto futures product line, and ICE will get real-time crypto spot price data from OKX to develop new crypto futures products. Expected to officially launch in the second half of 2026, users will be able to trade blockchain tokenized stocks and securities under ICE. After the news came out, OKB directly surged from $76 to over $120, rising nearly 50%, and trading volume exploded. Another event is coming soon. On August 15, the total supply of OKB will be officially burned down to 21 million tokens. OKT will also officially exit history, exchanged for OKB at a fixed ratio. The X Layer performance upgrade is also underway, aiming to make OKB the only Gas token on this chain. OKX has recently invested heavily to integrate wallet, exchange, and payment into X Layer, aiming to make it an ecosystem hub. Short-term, ICE news supports sentiment; mid-term, burning reduces supply; long-term, X Layer ecosystem expectations. All the news is positive, but my short position is still open. Floating loss of 14 points, it's not easy to stay calm. But the position isn't heavy, so the loss isn't too bad. Turned off the phone, didn't check anymore. Floating loss of 14 points, still holding. Will wait until after the burn on August 15 to decide. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$OKB

Storage stocks played the "earnings beat expectations, stock price crashes" game again Let's start with SanDisk. Earnings revenue was 8.97 billion, beating the market expectation of 8.48 billion, and they also approved a 14 billion buyback authorization, totaling 15.5 billion in buybacks. Western Digital's revenue was 3.747 billion, also exceeding expectations. Normally, with such results in previous years, the stock price would have taken off directly, right? But SanDisk fell 15% after hours, and Western Digital dropped 11%. The reason is just one: the next quarter guidance midpoint is 10.55 billion, while Wall Street wanted 11.16 billion. A 600 million shortfall caused the stock price to collapse 15%. The key is that both companies have risen three to four times or more this year, and institutional holders have huge unrealized gains. Once the earnings report came out, even if it was just "not more than expected," they treated it as bad news to sell off. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Now look at SpaceX. With a 100 billion unlock, 911 million shares can be sold. The market previously unanimously shouted "it's going to crash," but it actually rose 6%, closing at 114.92. But looking closely, on Wednesday it dropped 14%, already having a round of sell-off. Whether it has truly bottomed or is a dead cat bounce, no one can say for sure. #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Then there's the Federal Reserve. ADP small nonfarm payrolls were 44,000, market expectation was 75,000, hitting a six-month low. But despite weak employment, the market's pricing of rate hike expectations is not so easily loosened because multiple Fed officials continue to emphasize high inflation risks and that they can't be led by single-month employment data. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Putting these three things together, the logic is very clear: good companies do not equal good stocks, good performance does not equal stock price increase. SanDisk's performance was good enough, right? A 600 million guidance shortfall caused a drop; SpaceX's 100 billion unlock was scary enough, right? But it rose; employment data was weak enough, right? Yet rate hike expectations still haven't fully retreated. Is this super cycle of storage over? No one can give a conclusion—institutions argue more fiercely than anyone, both bulls and bears agree the performance is good, but the disagreement is how long this "good" can last. $SPCX ——$SNDK ——$BTC

#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 SanDisk's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock price dropped 15%, which is confusing to me. Last night, while lying on the sofa scrolling through my phone, I saw SanDisk released its earnings report. Revenue was 8.97 billion, surpassing the market expectation of 8.48 billion. EPS was $39.25, also beating estimates. They also approved a $14 billion buyback, and with the remaining from before, the total buyback can reach $15.5 billion. The numbers look pretty good, yet the stock fell more than 15% after hours. I stared at it for a while but still didn’t fully understand. After checking around, the market is talking about the Q1 guidance midpoint of 10.3 billion, which is lower than Wall Street’s expectations. Also, the stock had risen too much, expectations were set too high, and when the results came out and didn’t seem strong enough, it got sold off. Last year it rose more than sevenfold, climbing all the way to 2300, so any slight disturbance causes people to run. Additionally, the Changxin incident is also weighing on the whole sector sentiment. The performance itself is fine; AI storage demand is still supporting it. But the valuation is too high, expectations too elevated, so any slight disappointment leads to a sell-off. Retail investors cut losses, institutions unload shares. Good performance, stock price drops,,,,

#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH Italy's largest bank slashed its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 94% and tripled its Ethereum staking position — Italy's biggest bank, together with Banco San Paolo, cut its holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF by 94% in Q2. They reduced from over 640,000 shares down to just over 40,000 shares, while tripling their Ethereum staking ETF holdings from over 110,000 shares to nearly 350,000 shares. Looking into the specific holdings, the bank also did something quite interesting — it cleared out 99% of its IBIT call options while adding 500,000 shares worth of put options. Essentially, they reduced exposure while buying insurance. They haven't fully exited, still holding 3.46 million shares of ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, valued at over $67 million. So, it's not that they are bearish—they still have a position. But buying puts suggests caution. Overall, the moves look more like asset structure rebalancing rather than a purely bearish stance. Similarly, Harvard University exited $87 million worth of Ethereum staking ETF in Q1 and cut its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 43%. The same event, but two institutions moving in completely opposite directions. $BTC ……$ETH

OKB short position floating profit of 8 points, but I'm a bit uneasy about making money against the trend Lying on the sofa at night, I checked OKB again. Opening price 86.87, current price 86.15, floating profit of 8 points. The position is still there, no changes, and the floating profit isn't much. But honestly, I'm a bit uneasy about this trade—after opening the position, OKB kept falling, dropping a few points each day, slowly grinding down from around 87 to just above 86. The account is in the green, but the direction is opposite to the overall market trend. I reviewed OKB's recent data. At the beginning of July, OKB started rising from around 80, reaching nearly 88 by the end of July, showing an overall strong trend. It rose nearly 8% in the past month, which is pretty good in the current market. The market was quite chaotic throughout July; BTC fluctuated between 60,000 and 65,000, altcoins suffered heavy losses, but OKB managed to hold steady and climb slowly, indicating there are indeed buyers. A report from Messari a few days ago said OKB is the only token since its 2021 peak that still outperforms Bitcoin. In the past two years, only 22 coins have outperformed BTC, and OKB is the only one that has maintained a lead from 2021 until now. Looking at the market, OKB's trading volume has generally shrunk in recent months; contract trading volume dropped 44%, spot trading volume dropped 45%. It looks like a "rising on low volume" situation—the buying is there but lacks explosive power. The burn event on August 15 is approaching, and some are betting on this. Turned off the phone. Floating profit of 8 points, need to be cautious about making money against the trend. The position isn't large, so I'll just hold and watch for now. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $OKB

$SPCX made a profit, but the stock price fell, all the money was burned on AI The performance looks good, right? Then the stock price dropped 7% after hours. The reason lies in one number: capital expenditure. In Q2, 18.4 billion was spent, of which 15.8 billion was invested in AI infrastructure. The market expected 13.2 billion, exceeding by more than 5 billion. More profit, more burn. The Starlink business is a cash cow, with 4.29 billion in revenue and users increasing to 12 million, but ARPU dropped from $99 two years ago to $66. More users, lower unit price, behind the scale is intensified competition. Two days before the earnings report, the stock price had already fallen to 108, halving from the high of 225. Short positions piled up to 34%, betting $24.6 billion, more than Tesla. Even more intense, on August 6, 911 million shares will be unlocked, with over $100 billion worth of chips flooding the market. Now both bulls and bears are waiting, each betting the other will collapse first. Some institutions say the company is not worth this high, and the AI business might be priced at zero. Bloomberg analysts say the market actually can't see clearly and doesn't know what valuation to give. A company, earnings beat expectations, stock price falls. Made money, all burned. #OKX星球话题来啦 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量

#MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, halving its scale That "never sell coins" whale has started selling at a loss again Lying on the couch at night scrolling through my phone, I saw a piece of news—Strategy sold Bitcoin again, 1,638 coins at an average price of $63,957, nearly $11,000 less per coin than the cost price of $75,419. They sold over $100 million worth, selling at a loss. This is the company that once claimed "never to sell Bitcoin." Now? They've sold three times in a month. Previously sold 3,588 coins, then 32 coins as a test, and now 1,638 coins. Each time selling at a loss, each time saying "just to pay dividends." Their preferred stock has a 12% annual dividend, which must be paid. From the announcement, half of the money goes to pay dividends, half to repurchase their own preferred stock. Then the company also sold over 3 million common shares, raising $290 million, now holding $4 billion in cash. Plus, they still hold 840,000 BTC, accounting for 4% of the global total. They are selling at a loss, but the scale remains. I checked the comments; some say "even the dead bulls don't look favorably on BTC anymore," others say "it's just financial maneuvering." I think both sides have a point. They did sell, but compared to the 840,000 coins held, it's a very small portion. I turned off my phone and didn't look further. When a whale sells coins, some see it as a signal, others as routine. To me, as long as they still hold 840,000 coins, it means the big picture hasn't changed yet.

$OKB short position floating profit is 7 points, but it's not quite what I expected I glanced at OKB while leaning on the cashier counter. Opening price was 86.87, current price 86.26, floating profit 7 points. But honestly, this profit feels a bit uneasy. I looked at the trend; OKB climbed from around 80 at the end of July to 87, with all short-term moving averages supporting below the price, and the MA120 around 83, indicating this rise is not a spike but a solid accumulation of buy orders. The total supply burn event on August 15 is approaching, and some are rushing to accumulate early. My position is short, the price hasn't dropped much, and the 7-point floating profit is entirely due to opening the position at a small peak. Strictly speaking, this isn't me correctly predicting the direction, but rather luck placing the position at the right spot. The trend is clearly upward, so no matter how good the short position looks, it's against the trend. I glanced at my phone and turned it off. Take a few points profit and run; money earned without watching the direction will eventually have to be paid back. #OKX.ai：一个人就是一家世界级公司

$OKB is still hanging around 86, August 15 is approaching In the past half month or so, it climbed from 80 to 86, rising about seven points—not fast but steady. The highest touched 87.5, then fell back to around 86. The overall trend is pretty good; the short-term moving average is around 86.8, and the price is sticking close to the moving average without large deviations, indicating this rise is built on solid buying pressure, not a spike. Some brothers in the group said August 15 is coming, and the total supply of OKB will officially be burned down to 21 million tokens. This news has been talked about since last year, and the market may have already priced in some of the expectations. When the day actually comes, if the positive news is realized but the price doesn't rally, be cautious of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pullback. If the volume breaks through the 87-88 resistance zone on this news, that would be a different story. It feels like the calm before the dawn; everyone is waiting for the August 15 milestone to pass before making moves. Once August 15 passes, we'll know if it's a mule or a horse.