8.7｜100U Contract Challenge｜2nd Profit Withdrawal Start Date: July 31 This Withdrawal: 47U Account After Withdrawal: 100U Total Withdrawn: 207U Current Total Net Profit: 207U 【Challenge Rules】 ✔ Initial principal fixed at 100U ✔ No additional principal added ✔ Withdrawal amounts and timing are flexible ✔ Each withdrawal is recorded separately ✔ Final profit = total withdrawn + account balance - 100U 【Personal Trading Rules】 ✔ Do not pursue a high win rate, pursue a reasonable risk-reward ratio ✔ Accept judgment errors, do not prove yourself by holding losing positions ✔ Exit promptly when wrong, hold as much as possible when right ✔ Do not be affected by short-term profits or losses, strictly follow trading rules ✔ Control risk first, then consider profit Currently mainly trading $ETH $SKHY $MU Every confident trade will be documented in posts Only personal trading records, not investment advice.

#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $SKHYNIX Woke up early to find that the long order I placed at 1011 for Hynix was filled. As mentioned before, the expected support this time is 1000, but the order was placed conservatively. I'm still holding it and plan to take profit before tonight's market opens. After taking profit on the short at 1100 at 1045, I didn't continue shorting in the middle range nor did I immediately switch to going long. The reason is simple: the middle range is not good, the risk-reward ratio is too poor. Downward, it's already close to support, so limited room to keep shorting; upward, it hasn't broken out of the resistance zone, so going long directly is risky for stop loss. Rather than guessing direction repeatedly in the middle, I prefer to wait for the price to reach either end of the range. The previously analyzed support is near 1000, so I chose to place a long order early at 1011. It doesn't have to hit the lowest point; as long as it's close enough to support, stop loss is manageable, and there's enough room for an upward rebound, this trade is worth taking. ✔ Shorted at 1100, took profit at 1045 ✔ No participation in the middle range ✔ Support judged near 1000 ✔ Long order placed at 1011, caught this rebound ✔ Still holding, preparing to take profit before tonight's open This trade already has a considerable floating profit, but I won't force the support rebound into a trend long. After the market opens, volatility and uncertainty will increase. Since this trade was originally meant to capture the rebound, I'll lock in profits once the target is reached. In a choppy market, buy near support and sell near resistance. In the middle range with poor risk-reward, I'd rather miss out than trade for the sake of trading. Being out of the market is also a position! ✌️

ETH opened a short position at 1916. $ETH $BTC This trade is still based on a swing within the range, not directly expecting ETH to start a new round of major decline. Recently, ETH has repeatedly surged to around 1920–1930 but has not truly held above, while BTC has been stuck between 63,000 and 65,000 USD without a valid breakout. The current market situation is actually quite clear: BTC doesn’t rise, ETH finds it hard to strengthen on its own; once BTC falls back, ETH usually drops faster. The news is also somewhat contradictory. Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, there are renewed voices internally for rate hikes, and the market still expects further tightening in September, so risk assets are temporarily unlikely to fully rally. On the other hand, recent inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs have resumed, but funds clearly favor BTC more. ETH/BTC remains at a low level, indicating that while there is incremental capital, the market has not truly started an independent ETH trading trend. Additionally, Strategy has recently continued selling BTC, so there is selling pressure above BTC as well. Therefore, I opened a short at 1916 based on: ✔ ETH repeatedly failing to break through the upper boundary of the range ✔ ETH still relatively weak compared to BTC ✔ BTC has not broken out, making it difficult for ETH to strengthen independently ✔ Macro and capital factors are mixed, making range swing trading more suitable Next, 1900 remains the short-term boundary between bullish and bearish. If BTC breaks below 63,000 and ETH falls below 1890, I will continue to watch 1870–1850. But if BTC volume increases and holds above 65,000, and ETH recovers above 1930, the logic for this range short trade will fail, and it will be time to exit. I am not shorting ETH’s long-term logic. It’s just that before BTC opens up space, ETH hitting the upper range and failing to rise further makes this position worth trying a pullback.

ETH entered a long position at 1896. This trade actually follows the logic of the previous short position. The short opened earlier at 1908 has already seen a drop to 1872. After the short-term downward space was realized, I didn’t continue to chase shorts at the low level but waited for the price to return to the support zone and confirm no further breakdown before trying a long at 1896. Stop loss set at 1888 Take profit set at 1913 The logic is simple: ✔ The previous round of short profits has been realized ✔ Support around 1870 is still holding, no effective breakdown formed ✔ Price has pulled back above 1890, short-term expectation of a rebound ✔ Entry at 1896, position is not too high, stop loss is easier to control This trade is currently just a rebound near the support level and does not mean the trend has completely reversed. If the previous low is broken again, it means the support failed and the stop loss should be triggered; if it can hold above 1900, then see if the rebound can continue upward. Short when it was right to short before, now that it’s near support, willing to try going long. Trading is not about always being bearish or always bullish, but about making the corresponding plan based on where the price moves.

#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $SKHY The storage sector collectively plunged back into a downtrend. Still holding the short position opened near 1100 on Hynix; the current price has dropped to around 1051. Watching to see if it can break the support tonight and continue the decline. As mentioned before, 1070-1050 is the first support zone. The price has now fallen into this range, indicating that the downtrend structure after the failed rebound is still unfolding. The logic hasn't changed: Positive news has been fully priced in, but the sector can't rally; the downtrend channel remains unbroken, and even the support levels are starting to fail. ✔ Short opened near 1100 ✔ Current price 1056, down 44 points ✔ Original stop loss at 1132 ✔ Weakness continues, target remains near 1012 At this position, I won't chase shorts anymore, just manage the existing positions. As unrealized profits grow, I will gradually tighten protection to prevent profitable trades from turning into losses again. I'm not shorting the entire storage cycle, but rather the failure of this rebound after all the positive news has been priced in. The price has now given the answer; the rest is just to execute the plan.

Short position opened near 1100 on SK Hynix, targeting 1012 first, with a stop loss around 1132. $SKHYNIX This short is not because I suddenly turned bearish on storage, but because most of the short-term positive catalysts have basically landed, yet the price hasn't shown the expected strength. Six brokerages just collectively issued buy ratings, the company released expectations of increased shareholder returns; SanDisk's earnings and guidance both exceeded consensus, yet it still fell after hours. Even good news can't push the price, indicating the market is no longer trading on "whether earnings are good or not," but on whether such high expectations can continue to rise. At the same time, TrendForce's latest stance also shows marginal cooling: client SSD price increases have clearly slowed, and consumer-side purchasing is more cautious. Technically, this rebound still hasn't broken above the downtrend channel; after facing resistance at the upper boundary, it fell back again, and the trend structure hasn't reversed. ✔ Short near 1100 ✔ First look for support at 1070–1090 ✔ If it breaks down effectively, target 1012 ✔ Stop loss near 1132 If it climbs back above 1132 and recovers the upper channel boundary, this trade logic fails, and exit immediately. I'm not shorting the entire AI storage cycle, but after the cluster of positive catalysts have landed, this rebound still fails.